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Not sure if this has come up in discussion here yet, but I got to thinking about this the other day.
Will the mobile market bubble burst, just like what happened in the dot com era? It may be difficult to imagine, but its hard not to see the resemblance between the two. With the App Store's supersonic growth speed it may not be farfetched to think it could all come to a crashing halt (for developers that is). The mobile market, just like the WWW, is here to stay. But how much longer do we have as developers to enjoy the amount of success many do today?
My own uneducated opinion is that it may not burst completely, but maybe within the next couple years it will start to taper off and perhaps decline slightly due to several reasons: First, over saturation. I think there will be a decrease in the number of new developers once the Get Rich Quick dreams fade away. Also, existing developers may also give up on their pursuit once they realize the amount of difficulty it takes to get their app(s) noticed (think of the Store at this time having 3 million+ apps). And second, within the next couple years Apple's review guidelines will become so strict that many developers will simply give up. It's getting harder and harder to publish apps and with so many restrictions being placed frequently it won't be getting any better.
bubble -> bigger investissment than the real value. I don't see so big investissement (except facebook and instagram..). This will decrease, but slowly, not like a bubble exploding.
I don't think the comparison with the dot com era is valid, those companies were vapour, no customers, no income, just crazy ideas sucking up ignorant VC money. Today we have something like it, in that there are ignorant VCs with more money than sense, eg color? or whatever that was. Because it's the new hot thing. BUT, there is money there to be made, the customers are real, the demand is real, the income is real. Not dot com at all. The success stories doesn't necessarily come from taking VCs money, it comes from all those 99c transactions from real customers.
It will get harder to enter, it will mature, maybe even now it's too late for new entrants. But it's not a bubble. There is some over-valuing going on out there, as there is in any industry, but I see no bursting. I see maturing.
The market didn't even exist 5 years ago. If someone had asked me in an interview then what would I be doing 5 years from now it would NOT have been "full time independent mobile app developer" it wasn't even on my radar. Will it exist in the same form 5 years from now? Hard to say. Though I'm watching my 4 year old right right now playing some educational game on the phone. These kids are going to grow up with mobile apps as a way of life. At home, in school, everywhere. Its only just beginning I think. I do think the focus will shift to more robust apps made by more "mainstream" institutions as a compliment to their other digital offerings rather than indie developers striking it rich (unless they have a REALLY great idea) Anyway Its fun being along for the ride yeah?
While it's true that the kids of today are growing up with mobile apps as a way of life, I think the sheer number of choices they'll have in the future could lead to an indifference towards mobile apps.
I think the App Store is already pretty saturated right now. There're close to 700,000 apps out there and it's already not as easy for developers as it used to be. Fart apps and other simple novelty apps aren't going to cut it anymore. In the future, the main problems developers are going to have are going to revolve around having an original/interesting enough product to cut through the clutter and valid ways of getting potential users to discover their apps.
Right now, there seems to be a culture of making apps that rip off successful apps while adding a few "tweaks". It's a popular business model and if it continues to be profitable for developers, developers are going to continue doing so. There's a reason why 800 plus apps are being submitted daily.
I don't think this is something that can last though. As the app tally increases, as app reviewers start to ignore these apps, as consumers become jaded with the knock offs, a lot of these existing developers are going to have to go away unless they change and adapt.
For Interviews with App Developers and App Marketing Techniques - Visit www.beginningiosdev.com
Personally I hope apple deletes all the shitty apps and allow only quality samples for their users. -I mean they are doing it already with their physical products- you can't just go and buy a cheap shitty macbook. they are all above a certain quality(and price). if you can't afford them, touche. I certainly can't keep up with all their updates. I go as far as to say they should have a delete this app button and if a certain number of users like(10,000) flags the app it should be automatically marked for deletion. but again even if they do start controlling the quality right now, I don't see things getting that much better. the damage that has been done seems irreversible..
As time passes the succesful apps will be improved and improved and improved, to the point where a competitor looking to rip off their idea will have a LOT of work to do to get to a competitive product. This is already happening, and is part of the market maturing. Its good for the consumer, as they have a few apps with lots of effort invested in them instead of a lot that took 2 weeks in some kids bedroom.
This is where it is going in my opinion, not a bubble bursting but a market like many others, where get rich quick schemes stop working and working hard giving the customer what they want is the only way to go. The gold rush where anyone with a shovel might get lucky is gone, the folks who set up mines from the start will remain in the game.
Sorry for anyone reading this who hasn't started yet, you have to work as hard in this industry as any other now. And even then you'll struggle.
Agree with foany, successful app willl get more mature and there will still be a place for new game as long as the quality still grow or the gameplay is something new.
Its definitely not a bubble as others have pointed out. Still, there are many companies paying way too much to buy successful apps..Facebook buying Instagram and even Zynga buying Draw Something for outrageous amounts; does look like a bubble.
In a few years when the mobile platform matures, as in, there are just a few dominant players with stable platforms ( iOS, Android, MSFT etc ), people will realize that creating apps is *not* the way to go because of the effort involved in porting the apps over to all the platforms.
They will most likely switch to HTML5 to render apps. While, the user experience may not be as close to a natively developed apps, it will be extremely close to the point where the average user may not be able to distinguish it.
Platforms like PhoneGap and Appcelerator may not even exist in future because the development is not too easy and they may be always a version or two behind the native OS.
App Stores are becoming more like the internet....The only upside is that the owners of the app store can provide a unified payment interface and control the quality ( at least on iOS ...not so much on Android ) of apps being made available. If someone figures out how to provide a reputable payment gateway that everyone on the internet can use ( without having to provide your credit card in 10 different places ) and also certify apps/websites for quality, then it will be a real threat to the app store... I can see Facebook, Ebay (Paypal ) coming up with such a system in the near future....
If it were to happen this way, then only the gaming genre might survive (besides a few other utility type apps ) on the native platform. Everything else will move to the web.
The whole thing is a partial bubble... Some of these app/platforms/etc have merit. The DotCom had very little merit. Remember Google, Sysco, Amazon and others made huge gains during DotCom, some of those that gained during DotCom are still here today and doing fine.
Don't forget that some rise/fall independent from DotCom/App bubbles: MySpace, Dig...
The Internet was oversold, it was a gold rush and apps did/are doing a similar thing now. Social media is doing the same thing (Facebook) and are now having trouble.
Important Point: There is HUGE value in a 'pocket sized computer' They have HUGE power beyond games/texting/social interaction.
The bubble part will burst, it will hurt some, the overall wave/trend will recover and continue.
These handheld devices WILL be a cornerstone in the world of tech.
They will most likely switch to HTML5 to render apps. While, the user experience may not be as close to a natively developed apps, it will be extremely close to the point where the average user may not be able to distinguish it.
I don't know about that. The Facebook app is basically HTML5 and its crappiness is one of the reasons why a native app is supposed to be under development.
I don't know HTML5, but I think developers have much greater control with native apps as well as platforms have more control over what can be offered in the APIs. There are several things you just can't/shouldn't do with html code, like operating the camera and other things specific to the platform. However, someone said the upside to HTML is that it'll be around well past the devices as the devices go thru updates, and it should work across platform with little problem (no special code for all the different platforms)
I think no matter what coding language will be the best for future developer, hopefully it will be cross-plateforms, the fact is there will be more and more smartphones, tablets, maybe even eye-screens connected every where. I just hope there will still be a place for indie developers as it seems more complicated to get noticed when big companies always find their place in the top chart.
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I don't see so big investissement (except facebook and instagram..).
This will decrease, but slowly, not like a bubble exploding.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeIt will get harder to enter, it will mature, maybe even now it's too late for new entrants. But it's not a bubble. There is some over-valuing going on out there, as there is in any industry, but I see no bursting. I see maturing.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeWhile it's true that the kids of today are growing up with mobile apps as a way of life, I think the sheer number of choices they'll have in the future could lead to an indifference towards mobile apps.
I think the App Store is already pretty saturated right now. There're close to 700,000 apps out there and it's already not as easy for developers as it used to be. Fart apps and other simple novelty apps aren't going to cut it anymore. In the future, the main problems developers are going to have are going to revolve around having an original/interesting enough product to cut through the clutter and valid ways of getting potential users to discover their apps.
Right now, there seems to be a culture of making apps that rip off successful apps while adding a few "tweaks". It's a popular business model and if it continues to be profitable for developers, developers are going to continue doing so. There's a reason why 800 plus apps are being submitted daily.
I don't think this is something that can last though. As the app tally increases, as app reviewers start to ignore these apps, as consumers become jaded with the knock offs, a lot of these existing developers are going to have to go away unless they change and adapt.
Author - The App Store Playbook: Discover How 10 Successful iPhone App Developers Hit It Big Selling Games On The App Store
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomePersonally I hope apple deletes all the shitty apps and allow only quality samples for their users. -I mean they are doing it already with their physical products- you can't just go and buy a cheap shitty macbook. they are all above a certain quality(and price). if you can't afford them, touche. I certainly can't keep up with all their updates. I go as far as to say they should have a delete this app button and if a certain number of users like(10,000) flags the app it should be automatically marked for deletion. but again even if they do start controlling the quality right now, I don't see things getting that much better. the damage that has been done seems irreversible..
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like Awesomehttp://vertostudio.com/
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeBut I think we still have 2 or 3 years till that happens.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeThis is where it is going in my opinion, not a bubble bursting but a market like many others, where get rich quick schemes stop working and working hard giving the customer what they want is the only way to go. The gold rush where anyone with a shovel might get lucky is gone, the folks who set up mines from the start will remain in the game.
Sorry for anyone reading this who hasn't started yet, you have to work as hard in this industry as any other now. And even then you'll struggle.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeIn a few years when the mobile platform matures, as in, there are just a few dominant players with stable platforms ( iOS, Android, MSFT etc ), people will realize that creating apps is *not* the way to go because of the effort involved in porting the apps over to all the platforms.
They will most likely switch to HTML5 to render apps. While, the user experience may not be as close to a natively developed apps, it will be extremely close to the point where the average user may not be able to distinguish it.
Platforms like PhoneGap and Appcelerator may not even exist in future because the development is not too easy and they may be always a version or two behind the native OS.
App Stores are becoming more like the internet....The only upside is that the owners of the app store can provide a unified payment interface and control the quality ( at least on iOS ...not so much on Android ) of apps being made available.
If someone figures out how to provide a reputable payment gateway that everyone on the internet can use ( without having to provide your credit card in 10 different places ) and also certify apps/websites for quality, then it will be a real threat to the app store...
I can see Facebook, Ebay (Paypal ) coming up with such a system in the near future....
If it were to happen this way, then only the gaming genre might survive (besides a few other utility type apps ) on the native platform. Everything else will move to the web.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like Awesomehttp://news.cnet.com/2100-1023-235400.html
The whole thing is a partial bubble... Some of these app/platforms/etc have merit. The DotCom had very little merit. Remember Google, Sysco, Amazon and others made huge gains during DotCom, some of those that gained during DotCom are still here today and doing fine.
Don't forget that some rise/fall independent from DotCom/App bubbles:
MySpace, Dig...
The Internet was oversold, it was a gold rush and apps did/are doing a similar thing now. Social media is doing the same thing (Facebook) and are now having trouble.
Important Point: There is HUGE value in a 'pocket sized computer' They have HUGE power beyond games/texting/social interaction.
The bubble part will burst, it will hurt some, the overall wave/trend will recover and continue.
These handheld devices WILL be a cornerstone in the world of tech.
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0 • Off Topic Insightful Disagree Dislike Like AwesomeHowever, someone said the upside to HTML is that it'll be around well past the devices as the devices go thru updates, and it should work across platform with little problem (no special code for all the different platforms)
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